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Bank stocks are at an all-time low compared with the S&P 500 based on relative prices, according to data from BofA Global Research. One key factor for bank stocks is whether the Federal Reserve is close to wrapping up a monetary tightening cycle that has brought the highest U.S. interest rates in decades. Yet signs the Fed may keep rates around current levels through most of next year have weighed on bank stocks. This month, analysts at BofA Global Research said investors should “selectively” add exposure to bank stocks in anticipation of an interest rate peak. Overall, about 61% of all outstanding mortgages have an interest rate below 4%, according to the Apollo Group, leaving consumers little incentive to refinance or move.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Quincy Krosby, Bill Gross, Neville Javeri, Goldman Sachs, Jeff Muhlenkamp, David Randall, Bansari Mayur, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank, BofA Global Research, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fund, Allspring Global Investments, Fifth Third Bancorp, Investors, Apollo Group, financials, Fed, Muhlenkamp & Company, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Silicon
Here are eight companies or areas of the market that Muhlenkamp said he's bullish on. Regardless of what's happened in the economy or markets, the veteran investor's namesake Muhlenkamp Fund (MUHLX) has found a way to dominate. Although energy stocks have since reversed to become the worst-performing sector of 2023, Muhlenkamp said he's stuck with the group while riding the broad rebound in technology stocks. Two other tech companies Muhlenkamp mentioned are semiconductor firms Broadcom (AVGO) and Microchip (MCHP). Outside of technology, Muhlenkamp said he continues to like stocks tied to housing and financials, including certain regional banks.
Persons: Jeff Muhlenkamp, Muhlenkamp, he's, I'd, Morningstar, Goldman Sachs, they've, they're, He's Organizations: Muhlenkamp, Apple, Microsoft, Apple Watch, Vision, Broadcom, Bank, Federal Locations: Regional
And yet, despite the dip this week, markets right now are brimming with bullishness — and Reddit-loving retail investors are partying like it's 2021. Retail investors are rebuffing Jerome Powell in piling into speculative assets. Remember, at the start of the pandemic, government stimulus and near-zero interest rates gave retail investors the perfect opportunity to lay down speculative bets. "With all of these headwinds, retail investors are jumping in on maybe some ill-conceived optimism," Goldman said. But economic data be damned, retail investors are still piling into the riskiest corners of the market.
Leading fund manager Jeff Muhlenkamp put about half of his fund into cash last summer. Last summer, Jeff Muhlenkamp was so concerned about the US economy that he put nearly half of his fund's assets into cash. But in recent months, Muhlenkamp has moved more money into select stocks — even though he acknowledges that there are still lingering risks for stocks and the economy. "You're seeing buyers come back into the market," Muhlenkamp said. Lastly, Microsoft is like Apple in that it's a mature mega-cap company with profitable businesses that produce tons of cash, Muhlenkamp said.
Fed Chair Powell took an aggressive stance at the podium Wednesday, effectively saying the central bank isn't done hiking rates. The Fed signaled it won't be taking its foot off the gas anytime soon with policy, but markets of late have been acting like a so-called Fed pivot is all but guaranteed. "Powell's very hawkish comments didn't get a very hawkish reaction from the market," Wright maintained. But the more the market ignores the Fed, the longer the Fed will have to keep monetary policy restrictive, which ultimately raises the odds of a recession. "We're likely to see head-fakes like this where the market looks for a Fed pivot," one strategist said.
He shared 10 stocks to invest in for long-term gains and protection against a recession. If his macroeconomic predictions come true, the equity market will continue allowing him to play to his strengths in the near future. He also attributed his fund's success to the performance of the auto manufacturer Tenneco, the pharmaceutical distributor McKesson, and three energy stocks — EQT, Occidental Petroleum, and Schlumberger. To hedge against a recession, Muhlenkamp is also bullish on healthcare stocks. "Broadcom, in my opinion, is doing in tech what Warren Buffett does in industrials and energy — accumulating cash cows," he said.
Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund believes stocks could fall another 20% to 25%. Muhlenkamp shared two sectors and five stocks he's investing in to beat macroeconomic headwinds. The portfolio manager's eponymous Muhlenkamp Fund (MUHLX) has beaten 99% of its peers year-to-date. Even though the S&P 500 has already cratered over 25% year-to-date, another 20% to 25% decline wouldn't surprise Muhlenkamp. Energy currently looks ridiculously cheap, with energy companies generating a lot of free cash flow, Muhlenkamp said.
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